The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.1% this year

The IMF expects the world economy to grow three point one percent this year.

Evenly newsroomOctober 20, 2026 at 07:40 AM1 min read

3.1%Published Oct 13, 2026 · Washington, USA

Key facts

That is slightly higher than its previous forecast.
It sees the US at 2.3%, China at 4.5% and the euro area at 1.1%.
Growth is expected to pick up to 3.4% in 2027.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026. It published the figure in its World Economic Outlook on October 13, 2026, during its annual meetings in Bangkok.

The new forecast is 0.1 percentage points higher than the 3.0% the IMF expected in July, according to Trading Economics. Growth would still be slower than in 2025, when it reached 3.5%. The fund said strong advanced economies and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) helped the upgrade. For 2027, it expects growth of 3.4%.

The picture is different from country to country. The IMF sees the United States growing 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. The euro area should grow 1.1% this year, up from 0.9% in the July forecast, but high energy costs and weak consumer confidence still hold it back. China's forecast was cut slightly, to 4.5% from 4.6%, mainly because of weak spending at home, AFP reported. The IMF also expects world inflation of 4.7% in 2026.

The IMF's chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, said the world economy had been resilient, but that this resilience was under strain and that the risks to growth were mostly on the downside. The fund pointed to a long conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and a possible change in expectations about AI.

These numbers are forecasts, not results. Tenreyro warned that a long conflict could push inflation higher and slow growth.